//
you're reading...
Australian Current Affairs

Australia won’t be drawn into ‘mythical’ US-China war says defence consultant


Julia Gillard

Julia Gillard

The view that war between the US and China is inevitable and that Australia will be drawn into such a conflict is a dangerous miscalculation, says defence white paper author Paul Dibb.

The comments to be made tonight by Mr Dibb will follow those by Julia Gillard, who yesterday deplored “false modesty” in our relationship with China and described Australia as “a feisty, activist polity, boxing smart, overachieving in global affairs”.

The Prime Minister told a China conference organised by the Australian Davos Connection in Melbourne: “We should never be misled into thinking of ourselves as outclassed in the world or hanging on for the final bell”.

Speaking to the Australian Institute of International Affairs in Canberra, Professor Dibb will tonight warn that Australia should not boost defence spending to the 3 or 4 per cent of GDP suggested by some commentators on the basis of a “mythical threat” from China.

The emeritus professor at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre says a major war between China and the US is unlikely, though a minor conflict that could be contained is possible if territorial disputes escalated. “Is China going to be the dominant military power in our region any time in the foreseeable future?” he will ask. “The answer to that is no.”

And should the US therefore make strategic space to allow China to have a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia?

“The answer to that is also no,” he will say.

Professor Dibb will say analysts need to understand China’s weaknesses before beating the drum about its military power. It has been noted that China is a fragile superpower highly dependent on trade, and “If you go to war, any guarantees of international trade continuing vanish overnight,” he will say. “While China is developing its military, it is not the former Soviet Union and it is not exporting revolution and it is most unlikely to invade other countries.”

While there may be incidents at sea between Chinese and Japanese warships that could involve the Americans, Professor Dibb does not believe such incidents will trigger a full scale war.

The nations involved are aware that such a conflict is likely to turn nuclear and their economies are so interlinked that they simply cannot afford to let it happen.

In her Melbourne speech, Ms Gillard re-presented key domestic policies as contributors to her foreign affairs success in China in the past fortnight. She detailed the strategy that led to the agreements for regular meetings of top leaders between the countries — with Foreign Minister Bob Carr and Defence Secretary Dennis Richardson, then foreign affairs head, sent to Beijing to test the prospects, followed by her phone call congratulating Li Keqiang on becoming premier.

“Australia has fully earned the diplomatic success of the past fortnight,” she said.

This “serves as a valuable example of the strengths of Australia’s standing in the world — and offers a ‘counsel of moderation’ to some currents of thinking and debate at home.”

If the China relationship was all about raw materials, “our navy wouldn’t be the first Western partner for live firing exercises with the People’s Liberation Army navy” — another arrangement confirmed during her visit.

“We have never been simply a quarry or a beach.”

Source: The Australian – Talk of US-China war ‘is a dangerous miscalculation’
 

About Craig Hill

Teacher and Writer. Writing has been cited in New York Times, BBC, Fox News, Aljazeera, Philippines Star, South China Morning Post, National Interest, news.com.au, Wikipedia and others.

Discussion

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Pingback: US Senator John McCain slams Australia’s defence cuts as ‘imprudent’ | Craig Hill - April 27, 2013

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

If you liked what you just read, click "Subscribe" to become a follower of the Craig Hill site. You will receive an email each time a new post is published.

Join 17,663 other followers

An archive of all my old posts

Follow me on Twitter

Most Recent Posts Post on My Blog About China: China News

Chinese drones now almost a daily appearance over Taiwan

Chinese drones now almost a daily appearance over Taiwan

The Chinese military has intensified its drone incursions into the skies above Taiwan with almost daily flights of combat and reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) TB-001 drone was spotted crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the de facto boundary between the island and China’s […]

India says disengagement along disputed area with China to be completed by September 12

India says disengagement along disputed area with China to be completed by September 12

India’s foreign ministry said on Friday that disengagement along a disputed border area with China will be completed by Sept. 12. Both countries began disengaging from the Gogra-Hot Springs border area in the western Himalayas on Thursday, over two years after clashes at the frontier strained diplomatic ties. The disengagement comes ahead of a meeting […]

How to make EVs without China’s supply chain

How to make EVs without China’s supply chain

Two electrifying moves in recent weeks have the potential to ignite electric vehicle demand in the United States. First, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, expanding federal tax rebates for EV purchases. Then California approved rules to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. The Inflation Reduction Act extends the Obama-era EV tax […]

Anti-India forces: Techniques and agendas exposed

Anti-India forces: Techniques and agendas exposed

In the post-cold war era, India has moved from a policy of non-alignment to a policy of multi-alignment. This means that India has friendly relations with almost all-powerful and developing nations. Today India is carving out a unique path for itself. Such an approach provides prominence and exposes India to the harmful behind-curtain activities by […]

Taiwan’s Kinmen serves as a reminder of China’s aggression

Taiwan’s Kinmen serves as a reminder of China’s aggression

Taiwan’s frontline island of Kinmen was once again in the headlines when President Tsai Ing-wen paid tribute this week to the soldiers and civilians who “operated in solidarity and safeguarded Taiwan” 64 years ago. On Aug. 23, 1958 mainland Chinese troops attacked Kinmen in a key battle that marked the beginning of the Second Taiwan […]

Terrorism: The glue that holds China and Pakistan together 

Terrorism: The glue that holds China and Pakistan together 

The father of communism, Karl Marx, once famously said — “We have no compassion, and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror”. This statement summarises how terrorism and communism go hand in hand. Maoist China alone destroyed between 44.5 to 72 million lives. During […]

‘New normal’ across the Taiwan Strait as China threat looms ever closer

‘New normal’ across the Taiwan Strait as China threat looms ever closer

China is attempting to establish a “new normal” across the Taiwan Strait, eroding self-ruled Taiwan’s territorial control and increasing the threat of a strike with each military sortie, officials and analysts say. Beijing has ramped up military maneuvers in the 110-mile (180-kilometer) wide stretch of water that separates Taiwan from mainland China — and the […]

When Beijing was burning, Xi was playing personal games 

When Beijing was burning, Xi was playing personal games 

A great fire destroyed Rome for six days in the summer of AD 64. Famous Roman historian of that time, Tacitus, recorded that 70 percent of the city was destroyed and half of the city’s residents were displaced. Roman ruler Nero was accused of being indifferent, ineffective, and careless. The end result of this neglect […]

China would re-educate Taiwan in event of reunification

China would re-educate Taiwan in event of reunification

Once China achieves its professed goal of establishing control over Taiwan, a process of “re-education” of the island’s population would follow, according to China’s Ambassador to France Lu Shaye. The ambassador was speaking on French television channel BFM TV on Wednesday night, when he said a majority of the Taiwanese population actually wanted to be […]

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is a political sabotage

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is a political sabotage

Sri Lanka’s present state confirms the famous statement: “Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.” Sri Lankans have been repeating the mistakes of choosing the politicians Rajapaksas again and again. It is confirmed that there were unaccounted payments that the Chinese were liberal with during project negotiations with the island nation. They were paid […]

%d bloggers like this: