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In an era increasingly defined by geopolitical realignment and economic protectionism, the European Union (EU) and India are emerging as the most credible successors to global leadership, a shift accelerated by the resurgence of tariffs under a second Trump presidency.
With the United States turning inward and China facing internal and external headwinds, the EU and India are demonstrating the political maturity, economic resilience, and institutional frameworks necessary to fill the growing vacuum in global leadership.
The return of Donald Trump to the political stage has brought with it renewed threats of aggressive tariff regimes, a hallmark of his first term.
His America-first approach disrupts multilateral trade, weakens traditional alliances, and undermines the rules-based international order that the U.S. helped construct.
In this void, the EU and India find both opportunity and responsibility.
Trump’s tariffs, particularly those targeting key economic sectors and partners, have ripple effects. Supply chains shift, investment flows are rerouted, and geopolitical alliances recalibrate.
For allies like the EU and democratic partners like India, the shift offers a chance to solidify influence while promoting a more stable, rules-based order.
The European Union stands out for its deep institutional integration and long-standing commitment to democratic governance, human rights, and multilateral cooperation.
Economically, the EU remains one of the largest single markets in the world. Its regulatory power, often referred to as the “Brussels effect“, allows it to set global standards in areas from digital privacy to environmental sustainability.
Moreover, the EU’s ability to navigate crises, from Brexit to COVID-19, has strengthened its internal coherence and external appeal.
It is increasingly seen as a balancing force between the U.S. and China, capable of shaping the global agenda in technology, climate policy, and financial governance.
India’s rise, by contrast, is powered by demographics, digital innovation, and a growing appetite for global leadership.
As the world’s most populous nation, India is now the fifth-largest economy and projected to rise further.
Crucially, India aligns well with the current world order: it is a democracy, it supports the rules-based international system, and it increasingly engages in multilateral forums such as the G20, Quad, and WTO.
India’s domestic reforms. such as infrastructure investment, financial digitisation, and manufacturing incentives, are preparing it for sustained growth.
Its large English-speaking population and tech-savvy workforce position it as a vital hub for services and innovation in the 21st century economy.
China, while still an economic heavyweight, faces a complex set of challenges. Its real estate crisis, aging population, and increasing global scepticism about its strategic ambitions have dampened the momentum that once seemed unstoppable.
The centralisation of political power under Xi Jinping and a turn toward authoritarian economic control have begun to alienate foreign investors and trade partners alike.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, once touted as a blueprint for global influence, has encountered financial and diplomatic pushback. In this environment, its claim to future superpower status appears less assured, especially if global economic integration continues to favour transparent, democratic systems.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a rising middle power, is another critical player.
With a young population, rich natural resources, and a strategic location, Indonesia has the potential to play a larger global role.
However, structural issues such as bureaucratic inefficiency, political fragmentation, and economic inequality remain hurdles.
Nevertheless, Indonesia could emerge as a regional stabiliser and economic bridge between East and West, especially if it continues on its path of democratic consolidation and infrastructure development.
As Trump-era tariffs strain old alliances and global institutions, the EU and India stand out as natural successors to liberal international leadership.
Both are democratic, market-oriented, and institutionally compatible with the post-WWII order. Their rise does not represent a rupture, but rather a renewal of that system’s foundational values.
Together, they may shape a future in which democratic powers, rather than autocratic rivals, set the tone for international cooperation, digital governance, and sustainable development.
The age of American primacy may be waning, but the rise of the EU and India suggests that the liberal world order could yet find new stewards.
Craig Hill is a Brisbane-based author, journalist, teacher, business consultant and social justice campaigner. He is the General Manager of the Australian Business and Leadership School.
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