Sino-American relations have long been plagued by unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that undermine needed efforts to develop mutual trust between the world’s two most important countries. Yet events continue to spawn intriguing speculative possibilities, and who can resist spinning out seductive hypotheses to explain apparent riddles in the behaviour of either or both governments, especially when China‘s oppressive censorship exaggerates the role of rumours?

The ongoing saga of the “barefoot lawyer” Chen Guangcheng presents Chinese and foreign observers with at least two new, related puzzles. How could China’s protean internal security network, which costs the Chinese government more than its defence budget, have allowed this frail blind man to escape from years of illegal captivity in a remote village in Shandong and enter the American embassy in Beijing? And why, less than 48 hours after Chen left safety in the embassy, did Beijing officials open the way for the departure…